Kadlick’s Top Five NFL MVP Candidates 1.0: Evaluating the Award Post-Jalen Hurts Injury

With three weeks to go in the NFL season, it’s getting to be that time when voters get their ballots ready for the year-end awards. Although awards like the Offensive Rookie of the Year (Garrett Wilson) and Defensive Rookie of the Year (Sauce Gardner) are all but locked up, plenty are still in limbo – like the NFL MVP.

Eagles QB Jalen Hurts was running away with the award heading into this weekend until news of a shoulder injury hindered his chances and made the odds flip upside down according to our partners at BetOnline.ag. Here are their updated odds:

2022 Regular Season MVP

Patrick Mahomes                    -300

Jalen Hurts                              +350

Josh Allen                                +500

Joe Burrow                              +900

Justin Jefferson                 +10000

Tyreek Hill                           +17500

Patrick Mahomes shot to the top as the heavy favorite at -300, but I see this race a little bit differently, and a lot closer than BetOnline has it. Here are my top five heading into week 16:

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5. Josh Allen (+500)

I mean let’s call it like it is – the Bills would be much worse without Josh Allen.

Though some may say he’s having a down season due to flashbacks of 2018 turnover-prone Josh Allen, Buffalo is 11-3 and leading the AFC East thanks to his lead. He also plays football like a gazelle and makes highlight-worthy plays what feels like every single Bills offensive drive.

Allen is a stud – but it isn’t his time just yet. Give it a year or two and he’s bound to add “NFL MVP Winner” to his resume.

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4. Tyreek Hill (+17500)

Though he’s currently the longest shot on BetOnline’s board at +17500, Tyreek Hill has been absolutely pivotal in Miami’s success this season.

The former Kansas City Chief was traded to South Beach this offseason alongside a massive contract extension – and has been dominant ever since.

He’s hauled in 109 receptions for 1,529 yards and seven touchdowns through 13 games with the Dolphins – and has made Tua Tagovailoa look like a serviceable NFL quarterback. That alone deserves MVP votes.

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3. Patrick Mahomes (-300)

THIRD?! You’re putting Patrick Mahomes THIRD?!

Yes, yes I am. MVP is just as much a storyline award as it is a stat line award. Mahomes is the best player in football and has dominated the competition in front of him since the day he stepped onto an NFL football field. But does LeBron James win MVP every year? Is Bill Belichick always the Coach of the Year?

Okay maybe Belichick is a poor example after this season – but you get the point. Mahomes league-leading 4,496 yards and 35 touchdowns are simply the norm now. There are more deserving candidates in 2022.

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2. Jalen Hurts (+350)

Like Jalen Hurts. Despite spraining his shoulder and potentially being out over the next couple of games here for Philly down the stretch, Jalen Hurts has been sensational this season.

He’s led the Eagles to a 13-1 record thanks to his 22-5 TD:INT ratio and has also dominated on the ground. He has 747 rushing yards and is second in the league behind only Jamaal Williams with 13 rushing touchdowns.

If he wasn’t going to miss time, he’d probably run away with the award.

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1. Joe Burrow (+900)

The NFL’s Most Valuable Player of 2022 is Joe Burrow. After a rocky 4-4 start, the third-year pro has led the Bengals to six straight wins, a 10-4 record, a lead in the AFC North standings, and has thrown for 3,885 yards and 31 touchdowns along the way.

Ironically, when I wrote a similar article a year ago about the NFL’s MVP award, this is what I wrote about Burrow:

Burrow unfortunately tore his ACL in week 10 of his rookie year, but in 2021-22 has led the Bengals to a 10-6 record and an AFC North title, and has thrown for 4,611 yards and 34 touchdowns. Burrow should be the Comeback Player of the Year this season, and is setting himself up to win an MVP in the future.

Well, he’s set himself up perfectly in 2022. If Cincy can run the table here and he continues to shine like he has all season, I don’t see how Burrow isn’t the 2022 league MVP.

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