What Aaron Rodgers to the Jets Could Mean for the Patriots

After what’s felt like an eternity of waiting, news finally broke on Monday that Aaron Rodgers has been traded to the New York Jets.

While the discussion in New England has understandably shifted to “why the Patriots are now the 4th-best team in the division,” I think it’s important to remember their defense held Rodgers’ Packers in check for much of last season’s overtime thriller. This despite the offense having to field both of its backups, one of whom was making his first career start in Bailey Zappe.

It’s obviously not a copy-and-paste situation in New York, save for the Jets bringing in a couple of Rodgers favorites in wide receiver Allen Lazard and new Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson and 2x Super Bowl champion Mecole Hardman complement Lazard well, and the offensive line should be formidable if they draft a right tackle and the unit stays healthy (a big “if” in recent seasons). Breece Hall was also a strong OROY candidate before suffering a torn ACL, so his return could be another weapon in New York’s arsenal.

Rodgers will also likely shift away from the motion, RPO, and under-center-heavy scheme he executed under Matt LaFleur and towards his West Coast roots, with an emphasis on the run game, play action, and YAC opportunities to make the quarterback’s life easier.

With Rodgers in an offensive system specifically catered to his needs, it’s no wonder the Jets have become instant playoff contenders. But at the end of the day, football comes down to matchups, and there were clear reasons for optimism and concern looking back at the Rodgers and the Patriots’ Week 4 matchup. Here’s a dive into New England’s game plan in that meeting, how they executed it, and what takeaways could benefit the defense ahead of this season’s contests.

GAME PLAN

Secondary

The Patriots played man coverage as often as possible against Rodgers, forcing his receivers to beat them in their routes and at the catch point. Soft zone coverage was mixed in on early down snaps to make it easier for defenders to distinguish run versus pass.

Jonathan Jones was the primary outside corner to the short side of the field, where offenses often scheme 1-on-1 matchups for their best receiver, with Jack Jones as the field corner, Myles Bryant in the slot, and Devin McCourty as the primary deep safety. In traditional nickel groupings (three corners, two safeties), Adrian Phillips served as the main box safety.

When the Packers put Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon together in the backfield, New England responded with their big nickel package (2 corners, 3 safeties), putting Phillips in the slot and Kyle Dugger in the box over one of the backs. When Phillips was off the field, McCourty bumped down to take on man coverage duties on backs and tight ends while Bryant took his place in center field.

The Patriots also used this grouping against multiple tight ends when they anticipated a pass, but Jabrill Peppers was more involved as a backup to Phillips.

New England went defensive back-heavy on 3rd downs, using their big dime package (3 corners, 3 safeties) to create the best man coverage matchups. Dugger was the designated tight end eraser with Phillips/Peppers taking running backs and McCourty deep.

Defensive Front

Up front, the Patriots majored in 4-2 fronts to maximize their pass rush with two edge rushers, usually Matt Judon and Deatrich Wise, while respecting the possibility of run with Davon Godchaux inside and a pair of true inside linebackers.

After Mack Wilson proved to be a liability against the ground game early, Jahlani Tavai became the primary linebacker next to Ja’Whaun Bentley.

When the Packers used two tight ends or condensed formations, which often imply either zone run or play action, New England beefed up their defensive line by kicking Wise inside and bumping Tavai down to the edge, creating a 5-man front.

The Patriots sent out their best pass rushers from an array of fronts on 3rd downs. These unique looks were designed to disrupt the pocket by creating 1-on-1 matchups and setting up line games. While Barmore (nose tackle) and Judon (left edge) were consistent in their alignments, Wise and Uche spent time both inside and out. Mack Wilson was a key piece in these packages, often “mugging” a gap to influence protection before either blitzing on a stunt or dropping to read the quarterback.

During 2-minute situations, New England deployed a 3-1 “odd” front (no linemen over the guards) with Barmore inside, Judon and Uche on each edge, and Bentley and Peppers as mug linebackers. Bentley often engaged in twists with Barmore from these looks with Peppers taking the running back.

EXECUTION

1st Half

Rodgers opened the game strong with a big gain to Lazard, hitting the receiver on time between two zone defenders. But Green Bay’s passing attack struggled to find its rhythm for the rest of the 1st half, with Rodgers suffering from uncharacteristic inaccuracy.

The Packers’ plan emphasized getting the ball out of Rodgers’ hand quickly, but New England’s secondary was prepared and quickly shut down most underneath passes.

Jack Jones had an incredible start to his first NFL game, recovering a fumble he forced on a screen, then jumping an out route at the end of the half for the Patriots” first touchdown of the game.

Coverage was tight when Green Bay tried going downfield, but the pass rush also kept multiple plays from developing and Rodgers threw several uncatchable passes. Judon was a terror on longer developing route concepts, with quick 3rd down wins that resulted in a sack and a throwaway. Wise and Uche were also disruptive presences, especially in line games. The offense’s only score came on a touchdown drive that featured all runs.

But after another wide miss on his first attempt of the second half, Rodgers flipped a switch and the Pack started to roll.

2nd Half and Overtime

One key to Green Bay’s resurgence was a vintage Rodgers performance on the downfield throws that plagued him earlier in the game. After going 1-5 with an interception on such attempts in the 1st half, the 4x MVP went Super Saiyan the next three quarters, going 7-9 for 141 yards and two touchdowns.

Rodgers’ first touchdown came early in the 3rd quarter, using eye manipulation to turn a 2nd & 19 into a 20-yard score between McCourty and Dugger. On the next drive, he completed an explosive slant to Lazard similar to his first attempt of the game, this time using play action to fool zone defenders and create a huge void over the middle.

Another key to the Pack’s comeback was Rodgers doing a better job attacking individual matchups.

Jack Jones’ game-changing plays in the 1st half overshadowed a bad missed tackle on the same route he’d later intercept. But Green Bay saw an opportunity and started targeting him in off-coverage with quick throws, allowing the Packers’ bigger receivers to plow through the undersized corner for chunks of yards. Rodgers also missed downfield chances where Jones lost his assignment but capitalized on the corner slipping at the top of a route for a critical overtime conversion.

Rodgers also started pressing the size mismatch with Jon Jones (5’9″) covering Lazard (6’5″) and Romeo Doubs (6’2″) on the perimeter. This resulted in an explosive gain down the sideline and a backshoulder touchdown in the Red Area, both on throws that were virtually impossible to defend. To the elder Jones’ credit, he also showed exemplary hustle to recover and break up a deep throw that should’ve put Green Bay ahead before the final 2-minute warning.

Though Bryant performed well for most of the game, his inability to stick with savvy veteran Randall Cobb at the top of routes was exposed in the 4th quarter and overtime. This led to three 3rd down conversions, including a pass interference penalty before the end of regulation.

Judon nearly sacked Rodgers in overtime after McCourty eliminated the quarterback’s first read, forcing a throwaway on Green Bay’s first possession. But the Patriots’ offense failed to capitalize, and Rodgers targeted each of the Patriots’ starting corners for conversions on the Packers’ next drive to set up a game-winning field goal.

TAKEAWAYS

Get to Rodgers

This one always seems obvious, but it has to be mentioned. The Patriots consistently pressured Rodgers on longer-developing routes, which was a huge reason they were able to stay competitive despite being offensively outmatched. The future Hall of Fame quarterback will also be 40 in December, so getting hits and making him feel the pressure is bound to take its toll.

More size at outside corner

The Patriots had no answers for the Packers’ size at receiver once Rodgers got cooking. Jonathan Jones simply didn’t have the frame or length to contest fades, and Jack Jones was carried when trying to tackle. It’s no secret that New England needs more size on the perimeter, but Rodgers’ trust in Lazard and New York’s arsenal of big “Z” receivers bumps that priority a bit higher.

More athleticism at slot corner

Bryant gets more flack than he deserves, but Rodgers exposed his athletic deficiencies on intermediate routes. That will only be exacerbated against a twitchy receiver like Garrett Wilson, who flashed against the Patriots despite some abysmal quarterback play last season. It would behoove New England to enter 2023 with either Jon or Marcus Jones as their primary slot corner, lessening their chance of getting picked on against better quarterback-receiver duos.

Prepare for less predictability

Time will tell whether Rodgers was being protected by scheme or flat-out held back by the Packers’ conservative play-calling last season. Either way, it’s hard to believe the Jets’ offense will follow a similar approach with Rodgers projected to be running the show. Matchups will be even more important next season, as the Jets’ new signal-caller has shown he’ll exploit weak links without mercy.