Who Has the Edge in Celtic vs. Bucks Entering Game 5?

The Celtics and Bucks have split a pair of games between Boston and Milwaukee in what’s quickly becoming an all-time memorable battle between Giannis Antetokounmpo and Ime Udoka’s No. 1 defense. Jayson Tatum has battled Mike Budenholzer‘s drop scheme and struggled.

Grant Williams and Al Horford led Celtics wins with surprising performances, with the Bucks coming one quarter away from being in full control of the series in Game 4 despite Khris Middleton’s absence through the entirety of it. The Celtics return home feeling like they, too, could be in control up 3-1 if not for a tough foul call on the floor on Marcus Smart in Game 3.

The two teams will travel back to Milwaukee after Game 5 in Boston tonight, with this series feeling more inevitably bound for a seventh game on Sunday. Who has the edge at tip-off tonight? It’s a close call, with each team carrying distinct advantages so far in the series.

Boston —

The Bucks’ inability to separate:

Despite playing a dominant three quarters, the Bucks’ largest lead in Game 4 came two minutes before the start of the fourth quarter, going ahead by 11 points. They got outscored 46-28 the rest of the way, and Boston’s constant presence playing closely behind through Game 3 and 4 kept the Fiserv Forum crowd tight, and undermined two seismic scoring performances from Antetokounmpo.

“The group in general, especially with JB out was playing good,” Udoka said on Monday. “We looked at the score, down seven going into the fourth, and said we haven’t played that well at all honestly, let’s have a big fourth quarter and we did that … being down one at half, we didn’t really play that well, it got away a little bit … but to get it to a manageable number, seven going into the fourth, we felt pretty good about it.”

Boston boasted a 25-point lead at halftime in Game 2 that nullified anything the Bucks did in the second half, only allowed Milwaukee to creep back within 12 before going on to win by 26. In Game 1, the Bucks’ found their largest lead of the series, 17 points, early in the fourth quarter of a game that stayed closely contested for three quarters.

It’s a surprising reality for a Bucks team that smashed the Bulls in three straight games to win their first-round series over Chicago. While Milwaukee only posted the eighth-best net rating in the regular season (+3.2), they boasted the No. 3 offense in the NBA that gave them the ability to routinely separate from opponents. That’s been stymied, in part, by Middleton’s absence and the rest by Boston’s stifling defense. Antetokounmpo is shooting 43.9% in the series, compared to 55.3% in the regular season. Holiday is down to 33.7%, down from 41.1% during the year. The sixth-best eFG% shooting team in the league is converting only 29.2% of its threes through four games.

Being able to key in on Giannis:

Worse for the Bucks, Antetokounmpo is back to struggling (60.5%) at the free throw line, missing five on 11 tries in an eight-point loss in Game 4. That’s made the fouls he inflicts on Boston defenders less impactful and opens the door to more physicality against him in the lane. He’s also 12.5% from three, opting instead for high-difficulty mid-rangers that Boston will live with. Since he’s taking 32% of the Bucks’ shots (more factoring in attempts that led to free throws), Milwaukee is trying to win by going two points at a time.

Part of the team’s inability to separate is that they’re taking 68.3% of their shots from two, many outside the restricted area due to Boston’s rim protection. They’re shooting 28.9% in the paint outside of the restricted area on nearly 21 attempts per game.

Williams and Horford allowed the Celtics to guard him one-on-one, sticking to the shooters after Antetokounmpo killed them with the pass in Game 1. Milwaukee adjusted in Game 3, launching him at the basket, utilizing more screens to get Giannis looks at Jaylen Brown and wings instead of Boston’s sturdy bigs.

The Celtics doubled more timely and aggressively in Game 4, forcing key late turnovers that led to run-outs of their own.

The constant throughout has been the absence of Antetokounmpo’s supporting cast. Bobby Portis has scored fewer points in each game, culminating with four on Monday while Budenholzer cut his minutes to 14. Grayson Allen is shooting 40.9% in the series. Pat Connaughton’s late outburst in Game 4 has him up to 54.8%, but the Bucks have only fed him 7.8 shots per game, many in transition.

Milwaukee’s half court offense remains incredibly stagnant, everyone standing around on the perimeter waiting to catch and shoot. Holiday is the only other shot creator, and he’s now missed 50 of his last 72 shots since a strong Game 1.

The team’s over-reliance on Antetokounmpo showed in the second half of Game 4, when Antetokounmpo took long breaks when he hit the floor numerous times to catch his breath. He subbed out for 50 seconds six minutes in the fourth quarter, enough time for Tatum to initiate his game-sealing run with a driving layup. If Tatum’s scoring outburst from that frame continues in Boston, Antetokounmpo might even need to guard him some. He’s only had to do so for 22 possessions so far. More on that later.

Role players stepping up:

Horford received his flowers and saved the Celtics’ season with the game of his life on Monday, scoring 30 points including 19 in the fourth quarter to pull Boston back from the brink of elimination. He earned it, playing with pace, assertively taking open looks in spaces from mid-range that the Bucks allow and setting liberal amounts of screens to divert extra attention toward Tatum. His performance was there for the taking for any Celtic who wanted it though. The Bucks decided to give up open shots to Boston’s role players in this series, and they’ve converted them.

Horford reached 50% three-point shooting with his 5-for-7 showing in Game 4, Williams is hitting 41.7% from deep and Derrick White got going in Milwaukee after an 0-for-6 Game 2, hitting 38.5% of his threes overall in the series. Boston is 37.4% from three, well above their season average, as the Bucks now face a dilemma in how they guard the Celtics. They’ve stalled Tatum well in their drop scheme, but he’s a willing passer able to find Williams on skip passes, Horford in the pick-and-pop while Brown, Smart and White make themselves available in non-traditional screening actions, and can initiate for themselves.

“The NBA’s a lot about the two-man game, and those guys are in a good place. Horford’s shooting it at a high level, so we’ve got to look at it. We’re constantly looking and discussing and considering and trying to throw different looks … he’s playing lights out basketball,” Budenholzer said on Monday. “So we’ve got to find a way to make it harder on him and try to change the impact he’s having on the game.”

Would the Bucks switch? Kevin O’Connor suggested it after Game 4, but I’d be surprised to see them hand Tatum mismatches that he dominated late in that game after Horford’s outburst. They need to tip their cap to Boston, much like they did after the Celtics shot 46.5% through exceptional passing in Game 4 and make them work hard for their shots. Boston has gone stagnant offensively for key stretches in the series, turned the ball over and become frustrated with the officiating against the Bucks’ drop. Brook Lopez and Antetokounmpo have played a menacingly effective drop scheme. If Williams, Horford and White beat you, move onto next season. It’s more important that the Bucks get their own role guys going rather than overreacting to Boston’s.

“Team want to put more pressure or more attention on me and Jayson, Al especially last game killed them, made them pay for it every time,” Brown said. “You gon’ leave that pop open, you gon’ leave that seam open. Teams are going to try to take our advantages, or what they think our advantages are. That’s when we’ve just got to play team basketball and show that we’re a very good, well-rounded team that can score and beat you from a lot of different ways.”

Milwaukee —

Giannis:

At one point in the third quarter on Monday, it looked like Antetokounmpo would claim the series himself. He’s been denied numerous times in this series. Reaching 5-for-8 on this run, drawing six free throws and sending Williams to the bench with foul trouble, Antetokounmpo couldn’t be this time.

He pushed the Bucks ahead by 11 points late in the third quarter with a 13-point explosion, putting his head down and reaching the basket for four straight plays and finishing a stretch of six scoring plays for the Bucks on seven possessions.

Antetokounmpo hasn’t reached his peak form yet in this series, drawing close in Game 3 with 42 points, 12 rebounds, eight assists, two steals and two blocks on 16-for-30 shooting. Again, that’s a normal Antetokounmpo night. After shooting 38% in Boston, he vowed to find answers and did. Through all the Milwaukee, shortcomings mentioned in the last section, Antetokounmpo still has the Bucks in position to win two of their last three and advance in this series. He’s been the most dominant player on the floor by far, and it’s taken a historic defensive unit on the other side just to slow him to 32.0 points per game.

He’s blocking 1.3 shots per game on the other end, and holding opponents to 40.3% shooting against him facing 15.5 shots per game in the drop scheme. It’s been a herculean effort, or more fittingly in this case, heraclean.

Tatum’s struggles against the drop:

Tatum admitted he played horrible in Game 3, needing only a flurry of plays down the stretch of a two-point loss to push the Celtics through to victory after Horford initiated another comeback in that game. Tatum is shooting 38.3% from the field, 34.3% from three against the drop and 18.2% on mid-range looks. His efficiency at the rim his down to 52.2% from 68% during the regular season. Everything is difficult, Holiday and Wes Matthews hedging screens to stay attached to his hip.

With Middleton out, Tatum projected to be able to attack Matthews, Connaughton, Portis and Milwaukee’s guards similarly to how he torched Brooklyn. Instead, he’s overthinking like Kevin Durant did in that series, overtaken by physicality, ineffective screens by his teammates and Udoka saw him passing up open shots in that third game.

The Bucks’ defense has held up well overall, their 105.9 defensive rating better than the 113.6 offensive rating the Celtics posted during the regular season. They’ve forced 13 turnovers per game, allowing their transition attack to 142.3 points per 100 possessions, playing on the break on 14.8% of their possessions. That’s still less than the 15.3% Boston has played on though, and they’ve allowed three-pointers to keep Boston close in every game. Budenholzer will make the decision that’ll swing the series entering Game 5.

Will the Bucks continue to drop and deny Tatum, or will they switch to take away the Celtics’ shooters? Boston’s usage of smaller lineups in Game 4 and Robert Williams III’s injury status could open the door to more liberal switching from this group, perhaps one through four with Lopez and Antetokounmpo remaining in a single drop.

The officiating:

This is a more complicated story that Boston fans will admit. Both teams have been hit with an avalanche of foul calls through an intensely physical series so far. The Celtics have actually shot more free throws, 89 to the Bucks’ 88. A 34-17 advantage for Boston in Game 3 irritated Budenholzer nearly as much as the sweeping foul call on the floor irked Udoka.

That moment looms large over the series still, Smart being awarded two rather than three free throws with the Celtics down three points with under five seconds remaining. The NBA affirmed the call on Holiday in its two-minute report, and even called the same on a Grant Williams up-fake that drew contact on Antetokounmpo in Game 4.

The officiating of Antetokounnmpo has frustrated the Celtics throughout, from Brown planting his feet at mid-court in Game 1, through various ramming of Celtics defenders in the lane. Antetokounmpo officially committed only 16 offensive fouls called through nine games to start the playoffs, while drawing 54 on opposing defenses.

“The game was called very interesting last game. I’m not one to comment much on officiating,” Brown said. “Giannis presents a different challenge, his level of physicality is extremely high, and for somebody who initiates the contact, we feel like we should be able to initiate some contact on the defensive end as well, but the way they officiate the game, that’s not usually the case. It challenges our discipline. We’ve got to be extremely disciplined, extremely focused, because if not you pick up fouls that sometimes you look back on and say, ‘how did they call that?’ I bet it’s tough trying to officiate a game with a dominant player like Giannis, because he’s aggressive all the time.”

Udoka quipped to CLNS that he’ll teach his team to flop more after Game 3. He also got frustrated with his own group, particularly Willams for not getting back on defense complaining about a no-call on Lopez while Connaughton scored the other way. Boston also lost key challenges, on Williams’ fifth personal foul in Game 3, leaving the Celtics without one for the final call against Holiday. Budenholzer saved Holiday his fourth foul in Game 4, reversing a call and handing Brown his fifth in Game 4.

Horford, Brown and Williams all faced foul trouble, the Celtics have been called for 94 personal fouls, compared to 84 for the Bucks, and Antetokounmpo still hasn’t picked up his sixth foul despite reaching four in three of the four games. The Celtics, to their credit, have handled the whistle better than they would’ve earlier in the season, not picking up technical fouls, staying in games offensively, continuing to attack and getting quality minutes from White and Pritchard. Boston has also won games without Smart and Williams III due to injury in the series.

“It’s tough. You do the best you can,” Brown told CLNS at shootaround. “I’m not used to being in foul trouble, I don’t even remember the last time I might’ve been in foul trouble to that level. You do the best you can. You still want to maintain a level of aggression on defense, because you don’t want to not be in the game and not be able to help your team. Last game was tough, but we didn’t lose faith, I didn’t lose faith, our team came out, executed, played big down the stretch, bought me some time, I was able to come back into the game and help us close it out … we got a lot of different ways we can win games, we just have to come out, accept the challenge physically from Milwaukee and execute.”