Kyrie Irving Trade and Other Deadline Thoughts and Predictions

BOSTON — Kyrie Irving’s arrival at TD Garden on Wednesday drew considerably less fanfare than the raucous scene that met him last year when the Celtics and Nets met in the first round. With Brooklyn still in the standings rear view, Kevin Durant injured and Boston racing atop the east, anyone who joined the sparse mid-week crowd late saw the game already concluded. And possibly an era, if you can call it that.

Irving took to the podium hours later for a subdued exchange with reporters. He scored 20 points on 9-for-18 shooting after a slow start, featuring none of the middle fingers and concourse spats. Only one Kyrie sucks chant rained down on him, in the final seconds, as he exchanged pleasantries with his old Boston teammates. It looked like the beginning of the end for the fiercest of hostilities between Irving and Celtics fans.

It also marked his final game in a Nets uniform. Two days later, Irving requested a trade from Brooklyn. Four days later, he received one. The Nets traded Irving to the Dallas Mavericks for Dorian Finney-Smith, Spencer Dinwiddie, a 2029 first and second-round pick. Brooklyn moved quickly enough to show their desire to close a maddening four seasons, despite arguably signing up for more future uncertainty. The Nets returned an admirable array of contributors who fit into Jacque Vaughn’s resurgent defensive system. Durant remains dominant enough to carry this team to contention.

Questions linger about how long he’ll be willing to do so with his teammate who drew him to the Nets gone — and how it all went so wrong.

“Tonight, I felt like we were just one of those teams in the way,” Irving said on Wednesday. “We’ve got to be one of those teams that stands up to them and at least shows them that we’re going to be competition for them moving forward, which I believe we are … can’t hang our heads, we’ve got to keep our heads up and get ready for this next home stand that we have.”

“We could throw any excuse in the bucket, but I choose not to do that. We just take accountability for where we are in the present, and control what we can control now. The past is the past … as a competitor, I’m not gonna stop until I figure out what this methodology to the Boston Celtics is right now and why they’re so hot … we just have to develop a tougher mentality here, and when we do that, I feel like we’ll be in better competition with them.”

Nets’ future

How Irving spun from that optimistic outlook to sitting out Saturday’s win over the Wizards, which Durant did not attend, rang familiar to Celtics fans, setting up a shocked Nets fan base to grapple with their own split. A contract dispute reportedly set Irving’s departure in motion, with the Nets including stipulations in a long-term deal that protected them in case he became unreliable. Brooklyn entered the year intent on playing out the season though, before Irving’s suspension for sharing an antisemitic film on his Instagram. The Nets had no rush.

Those conversations might’ve restarted after Irving and Durant led an 18-2 charge upon his return. That fell into a 4-7 swoon once Durant went down with an MCL sprain. The deadline gave Irving a point to pressure the Nets on to earn a maximum contract, or an escape valve to acquire one with his Bird Rights elsewhere.

Brooklyn said enough, and gave him the latter. The same injury cost Durant time last season while James Harden sat out and Irving played part-time, leading Brooklyn to lose 17-of-20 and Harden to demand his own trade. Also following a horrifying loss to Boston where the Nets fell behind 24-2.

Now, only Durant remains alongside a completely uncertain roster. Dinwiddie, who starred for Brooklyn late last decade, played a more complimentary role in Dallas and becomes the Nets’ main facilitator, for now. Finney-Smith, Royce O’Neale and T.J. Warren all provide shooting, scoring and size, with little ball-handling. Nic Claxton and Ben Simmons partnered as a dominant defensive duo before Simmons’ latest knee pain. Finney-Smith’s arrival could limit how much they rely on Simmons. Joe Harris and Seth Curry can more comfortably play next to bigger teammates. A heavier weight falls on Durant offensively, with no word yet on his reaction.

Remember that Irving and Durant arrived demanding Deandre Jordan join them, setting up the end of Kenny Atkinson and Jarrett Allen’s time with the team. Allen became an all-star with a Cavaliers team set to surpass them in the east, and made the destination more compelling for Donovan Mitchell. The roster around Durant fits defensively, but you have to imagine the offense might not flash bright enough to satisfy him.

Durant could follow Irving out the door and Chris Haynes reported the Suns will monitor his decision. He won’t hold much more leverage than he did in the summer, still signed through 2026 and with less than four days for the team to formulate a transformative shift toward a rebuild. The Nets don’t own their first-round pick outright until 2028 due to the Harden trade with Houston, and carry little incentive to rebuild. That made it imperative to find a trade partner who could help them maintain an enticing roster. They’re close, and can trade their own 2029 first, Philadelphia’s 2027 and Dallas’ 2029 with various salaries improve further ahead of the deadline.

Cam Thomas, the young scorer long buried behind Irving, broke out for 44 points while Edmond Sumner shined, and said in his post-game interview on the broadcast that the Nets tried to put everything else aside and focus on basketball. It looked like Terry Rozier and the young Celtics’ run with Irving absent in 2018.

They long dreamed of doing just that, until Irving and Durant’s apparent ousting of Atkinson in 2020, to the insertion of Steve Nash to Irving’s opposition to the Bubble and holdout from it, to his 2021 hiatus and party appearance amid COVID, to his 2022 vaccination holdout to his part-time status that followed and playoff struggles that spring in the sweep at the hands of Boston. The dysfunction of Irving’s Nets tenure shocked even his biggest pessimists. He appeared in only 143 out of 278 regular season games.

Will this work for the Mavericks?

Now, the Mavericks buy in, intrigued by his talent despite three cities recovering from his exits serving as a warning, and feeling better without him. The Mavs’ rush to alleviate Luka Dončić’s burden and end their long-lasting desire to land a star already paints this as a dubious move, trading arguably their second-best player in Finney-Smith.

They might’ve had no choice or better alternative, but Dončić’s long-term contract gave them some ability to wait. Instead, they sped up the timeline to contend out of a western conference they still appear worse than Denver and Memphis in.

That’s a lesser concern to Boston though. It’s still more likely Durant challenges them in the east than Irving does in the Finals, so Wednesday might’ve marked his last game against the Celtics until next fall at the earliest.

I like Dinwiddie, a 6-5, sharp passer who hits big shots and converts 40.5% of his threes. Finney-Smith should shine in Brooklyn, a proven playoff performer (41.7% 3PT) who’s big enough to guard the east’s star wings like Jayson Tatum.

Reports of their big ask of the Lakers and Joe Tsai’s insertion don’t matter, this team was never taking back Russell Westbrook and distant future draft considerations to have Durant depart and Barclays Center sit empty as the Nets pay tax. Chris Paul’s availability raised my eyebrow. His age and contract made it a risk. He would’ve also been a captivating Irving replacement, even if Jae Crowder hasn’t played since last spring.

The Nets probably did the right thing, and whatever’s next is out of their control. The same place they stood leaving their status to Irving’s weekly whims. They may not rival the Celtics and Bucks, but didn’t before Sunday anyway, falling to 0-3 and losers of 10 straight against Boston after Wednesday’s loss.

On Saturday, they had fun.

Here’s what else I’m watching ahead of this week’s trade deadline…

• I’ve read and heard enough to think the Celtics will make some kind of front court addition, whether through a trade or buyout addition. Luke Kornet injured his left ankle and is questionable to play on Monday against Detroit, leaving Al Horford, Robert Williams III and Blake Griffin at center.
• One additional front court injury would place them in a difficult minutes and rotation decision now or in the postseason, especially since the Celtics transitioned to starting Horford and Williams III together last month. Reports of interest in Kelly Olynyk seem overstated. His teammate Jarred Vanderbilt fits the Dennis Schröder trade exception (expires at deadline) but is drawing interest from teams like the Trail Blazers, which would inevitably increase the cost.
• Jakob Poetl remains on Boston’s radar, according to Jake Fischer, and with each day decreasing the likelihood the Spurs receive multiple first-rounders for him, the potential to upgrade secondary center minutes with a real insurance option at the position to play in case of injury remains intriguing. Danilo Gallinari can be traded to San Antonio, according to multiple sources. He continues to recover from ACL surgery, and it’s considered unlikely he can help the team this season. He maintains a player option for next season worth $6.8-million. Sam Hauser, his replacement early in the season, fell out of the rotation late last month after a months-long shooting slump.
• The Celtics also need to address Grant Williams’ future and could weigh scenarios where they could move him before the deadline. That’d forgo whatever he can provide for a postseason push and the ability to match any contract offer he receives with restricted free agent rights. Reports have pointed toward the Celtics not trading anyone in their rotation, and I haven’t heard anything about his availability. It’d be difficult to upgrade on him with someone like P.J. Washington, and his uneven play into the new year probably limits the ceiling on his salary. Whatever number he reaches though, it’ll be taxed for its entirety on top of whatever Jaylen Brown’s potential super max deal, and Tatum’s after that pile on the franchise. There are spending limits for any team, and Grant could become a price they can’t quite meet even on the lower end of his projections. They’d hoped to extend him in the low-teens average annual value in the offseason.
• Beyond possible trades — here’s who I’m looking for as buyout possibilities: Kevin Love fell out of Cleveland’s rotation this week, Will Barton is expected to receive one from the Wizards and Kelly Oubre Jr., Jae Crowder, Cam Reddish and Boban Marjonovic would be the next-likeliest to hit the open market after the deadline. Andre Drummond, Thad Young, Daniel Theis, Rudy Gay and Derrick Rose play on longer-term deals, making their potential buyouts less likely, but possible. Theis cannot sign with the Celtics unless he’s traded to another team and bought out by them.
• Don’t hold your breath on John Collins moving. The price reportedly decreased, but his four-year, $102 million contract seems like too much of a hindrance to get a deal done. I could only imagine the Jazz and their array of salaries and future draft picks finalizing it, given his ability to stay through a rebuild.
• The Bulls should probably initiate their own rebuild, but aren’t expected to trade DeMar DeRozan or Zach LaVine. They have plenty of intriguing role players like Drummond, Alex Caruso and Javonte Green, a Celtics favorite who’s currently recovering from knee surgery and fits the Schröder TPE. They’d be an intriguing Knicks partner, in Caruso’s case and Nets partner if Brooklyn decides to pursue DeRozan. Goran Dragic could also help a contender and Nikola Vučević becomes an unrestricted free agent this summer. They owe Orlando their first-rounder (top four protected) from the deal to acquire Vučević.
• The Raptors are more likely to sell, with Gary Trent Jr.’s contract expiring and more than enough money available around the league this offseason to draw Fred VanVleet away. There seems to be enough interest in O.G. Anunoby to sell high on him, whether to New York, New Orleans, or Memphis, though they’re less likely to be active this week. Brooklyn could also trade for any of those players.
• Utah enters as my third most intriguing deadline team. The Celtics have long liked Malik Beasley, a volume three-point shooter who fits their system that wants to put that shot up it volume. It’d cost Gallinari, Luke Kornet, Payton Pritchard and Justin Jackson to match his salary, setting up an even higher need to acquire a big man around the deadline. Maybe a larger deal emerges that would allow Boston to address both its wing and front court rotation in one deal with the Jazz, but Danny Ainge’s new front office won’t let the Celtics off the hook in terms of what they give up in future draft capital. Boston can only trade its 2025, 2027, or 2029 first-rounders feasibly. The Jazz will also weigh Mike Conley trades, which isn’t a fit for Boston. He’s owed $22.7-million this year with a non-guaranteed 2024.
• It’s worth noting Boston owes its 2028 pick swap to San Antonio, top-one protected, which gives them more negotiating room with the Spurs than other teams when it comes to future draft compensation. They also have an open roster spot and pay significantly more real money on top of whatever salary they add due to their luxury tax status.
• The Suns, Warriors, Heat, Clippers and Lakers project to be the most desperate buyers, with limited resources to add to their already expensive and top-heavy rosters. LA probably missed out on its opportunity when the Irving deal went down. Golden State lost Steph Curry for an undetermined amount of time when Curry went down this week. The Heat and Clippers can only offer depth role players and a limited number of future first-rounders, while the Suns’ main trade pieces are Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, Paul and Deandre Ayton, who owns veto power over any trade this year.