Manning: Little Silver Lining Surrounding Robert Williams III Injury

Robert Williams III’s meniscus injury was hard to pinpoint through the flow of Boston’s sixth straight win where they built a 20-point lead on Sunday over Minnesota. He stumbled and moved cautiously after the apparent impact following a rebound attempt in the third quarter. It’s also difficult to know what’s next for Williams III and his Celtics after the introduction of a notoriously tricky injury with long-term implications.

Celtics doctors completed a partial meniscectomy on Williams III’s left knee on Wednesday. The decision to trim the tear, rather than fully repair the ligament, could allow the center to return in 4-6 weeks, or roughly in the second round of the postseason.

That means Williams III either suffered a smaller tear, it wasn’t reparable, or the parties involved opted for a quicker return. Despite the encouraging timeline, which Adrian Wojnarowksi reported could veer closer to the shorter end, the injury introduces uncertainty that didn’t exist when the racing train Celtics built the No. 1 offense and defense in March through an 11-1 start.

They were beating great teams like the Nuggets, Jazz and Timberwolves handily, with the removal of the team’s X-factor at least tightening the margins and nixing the defensive wrinkle that made them an unprecedented force at that end of the floor.

Williams III’s shot-blocking, roving role on defense and his seven-foot length allowed the Celtics to pinch the interior when he played alongside Al Horford and keep opponents outside of the paint. The strings of stops, turnovers and live ball blocks they piled up led to transition opportunities and possession advantages.

Wednesday night’s matchup with Bam Adebayo and an imposing Heat front court provides an opportunity for Horford, who’ll rotate to a more interior defensive role, along with Grant Williams and Daniel Theis. Horford’s defensive versatility has shined all season and he’ll be able to rove, play pick-and-roll defense and switch onto the perimeter. Few teams have such a quality backup option at the five, perhaps the biggest silver lining to Williams III’s absence.

Grant Williams and Theis provide quality depth, with Theis sharing some of Williams III’s twitchier tendencies, length and rim deterrence. Grant will at least initially step into the starting lineup and allow the Celtics to continue to switch everything, replacing Williams III’s vertical spacing with three-point shooting.

Theis and Horford playing double big minutes could become an intriguing factor, too, with Horford staying in his role and Theis roving in help position, while also providing some pick-and-pop action on the offensive end. Ime Udoka had already started to pair Theis with Williams III as he tried to acclimate Theis. The Celtics will feel the difference in fouling.

While going at Williams III in pick-and-roll actions to pull him to the perimeter proved fruitless and even a distraction for opposing offenses, teams can try to attack Williams and Theis mismatches. Williams fouls 3.6 times per 36 minutes. Theis committed an astounding 5.7 per 36 through his first 15 games and Williams III averaged 2.7 per 36, a reduction that might’ve been the single biggest factor in his ascension to defensive player of the year level status.

There’s a chance the Celtics will need to mix in more drop and dump the roving scheme entirely. They have bodies to fill in for Williams III, with more depth in place to sustain in his absence than they would needing to replace Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown’s scoring. Nobody can be the matchup problem Williams III can be.

The Theis trade looks all the more key, as does the team’s 22-3 stretch that vaulted them to home court status. If Williams III’s timeline proves correct, Tatum’s hot play continues and the defense holds at a relatively similar level, championship dreams could persist.

Those all become real questions for a team that had few days ago. Williams III and Boston’s regular starting five outscored opponents by 24.6 points per 100 possessions through 443 minutes. The double big lineups that featured Horford and Williams III allowed 99.9 points per 100. By comparison, Horford and Grant Williams’ lineups scored 112.5 PP100 and allowed 107 PP100 (+5.5) in the new year, mostly second unit minutes that came against opposing benches. Grant Williams played to a net +0.6 as a starter (19 games) this season.

Then, there’s the meniscus tear. Bulls guard Lonzo Ball, who underwent a similar surgery in January, is concluding his ninth week of recovery after initially receiving a 6-8 week timeline. Each case and treatment differentiate, with Ball having already suffered a meniscus tear in the same knee, along with a bone bruise. Going with a partial removal carries risk for every player long-term.

Dwyane Wade suffered lingering consequences after his 2002 surgery. Jimmy Butler returned after six weeks in 2017 and played well in the postseason for Minnesota. Joel Embiid missed the closing weeks of the season that year with meniscus surgery, but played through a smaller tear last postseason and dominated. Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose and Kemba Walker all had their careers and explosiveness altered in the years that followed their tears.

Williams III’s reliance on his burst could be the most concerning factor around this injury, since he’s suffered from tendinitis, knee pain and entered the league with a condition that limited blood flow to his knee. One of the challenges with meniscus recover is blood accessibility, which is why surgery is typically needed to repair a tear. A full repair would’ve limited future risk of arthritis, cartilage degeneration and other complications.

The Celtics had a unique chance to win a championship with a tight rotation dominating on a string around a unique defensive wrinkle that appeared unstoppable. If Williams III missed the rest of the season, championship hope would’ve rested in this group having multiple future seasons to contend together after Williams III and Marcus Smart received long-term extensions.

Now, the Celtics will need to beat formidable Chicago, Toronto, Cleveland, Brooklyn, Charlotte or Atlanta teams, depending on how Boston’s seeding shakes out in a tight closing stretch, just to get to the second round and have some hope Williams III returns. It’s hard to carve out some silver lining out of that, even if Woj’s report and the Celtics’ statement spelled hope for a speedy return.