Overreaction Tuesday: Are the Patriots Frauds? | BetOnline.ag

It was a wild week in the NFL with COVID outbreaks, rescheduled games, and a few rather obscure upsets. With all of this craziness comes plenty of questions to be asked. The one on the top of the list is simple: has the Patriots success this season been fraudulent?

The easy answer is no – it hasn’t. Over the last eight weeks they’re 7-1 and have taken down the top two teams in the AFC in the Titans and Bills. They’ve played complimentary football and are still within reach of the conference’s one seed.

However, Saturday night’s game was New England’s worst showing this season outside of their week three loss to New Orleans. It was a huge reality check for a team that has had an abundance of injury luck and a monsoon against a team with no running back. There’s a chance this team was vastly over-achieving during this stretch.

But let’s take a step back. New England still has plenty to be excited about, and it would be silly to pull out the F-word after one loss to a viable Indianapolis team. After all, Mac Jones is still just a rookie, and although he turned the ball over twice on Saturday – he showed some promise in the fourth quarter by almost leading them to a comeback win. Despite his lackluster play over his last two games, Mac is still cemented as the Offensive Rookie of the Year. He is the heavy favorite (-800) over Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase (+400) according to BetOnline.ag. Here’s what Jones had to say about the team’s performance this weekend:

Having said all of this, the Patriots will need to rally the troops this weekend and get their mistakes squared away with the Buffalo Bills coming to town. They’re not quite frauds yet, but they certainly have to look themselves in the mirror this week to figure out what kind of team they can be down the stretch.

The Patriots aren’t considered frauds from a betting perspective either. According to our friends at BetOnline.ag their odds hardly moved following Saturday’s loss to Indy. Here’s a look:

Super Bowl Odds

The Patriots (+900) still have the fourth best odds to win the Super Bowl behind the Chiefs (+425), Packers (+450) and Buccaneers (+600). The numbers shifted a little bit for everyone, but New England remains fourth.

The AFC has been rather underwhelming this season, so I can understand why a team like Tennessee or Buffalo has yet to jump ahead of them. Side note: could you imagine a Patriots vs. Bucs Super Bowl? That would be the most watched television program of all time.

AFC & AFC East Champion Odds

New England is still well positioned to win the AFC according to the oddsmakers at BetOnline. The red hot Kansas City Chiefs are now the favorites to represent the conference in the Super Bowl, but the Pats are right behind them at (+400). Here are the top five:

AFC Championship

Kansas City Chiefs +190

New England Patriots +400

Buffalo Bills +550

Indianapolis Colts +850

Tennessee Titans +950

Despite a New England win and a Buffalo loss this weekend, the Patriots are still the favorite to win the AFC East. These odds, however, could dramatically shift after this Sunday’s game. It is an absolute must win for both teams and will likely determine who wins the division. Here are the odds:

AFC East Champion

New England Patriots -185

Buffalo Bills +140

Miami Dolphins +8000

Bill Belichick Coach of the Year Odds

Coach Belichick is the odds on favorite to win Coach of the Year. He has even (+100) odds, with the next closest being Green Bay’s Matt LeFleur at (+350).

I’ve been on Bill winning COTY for a while now. Here’s an excerpt from my November 10th story on the chances Belichick takes the trophy home:

Throughout their 20-year dynasty, the Patriots were always penciled into playing meaningful games in January. Especially with Tom Brady at the helm, it was an after thought that they could ever miss the playoffs – or even the AFC Championship game. We expected this from Belichick and never thought twice about it.

Now? Well after a dud of a season last year – with abysmal quarterback play – I think it’s time we realize what Bill Belichick truly does for a football team.

The Patriots started the year 1-3 and frankly looked to be down for the count just a month into the season. Mistakes across the board from both players and coaches cost New England wins against Miami, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay.

After a nail biter in week five against Houston, Belichick clearly had seen enough.

Belichick then took it upon himself to fix the defense (which our own Evan Lazar wrote about), by “shifting his defensive philosophy to more zone coverage. Over the last four games, the Pats are playing zone coverage on 66% of their snaps, a noticeable change from only 40.4% zone in their first five games in 2021. New England’s defense went from middle-of-the-pack to fifth in expected points added per play (-0.04) and fourth in points allowed (18.9) through the first nine weeks of the season.” The team has gone 8-2 since the change. Bill is clearly taking this award home.

This weekends game is absolutely critical, and it will show us what we can expect from this team moving forward. Keep it with us for coverage all week leading up to Patriots vs. Bills.

Make sure to follow Mike on Twitter @mikekadlick, and follow @PatriotsCLNS for the latest up-to-date Patriots news!

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Mike Kadlick

Mike is a Patriots reporter with experience in radio, podcasting, and writing. Follow him on Twitter @mikekadlick.