The Celtics Know They Can Beat the Warriors in the NBA Finals

SAN FRANCISCO — The Golden State Warriors — the decade-long dynasty — paid due respect to the Boston Celtics. A young team looking to break through, home grown through the NBA Draft and a core that’s played together for a long time. But the Warriors’ run, Steph Curry, asserted, still hasn’t approached its end.

“What I see in Boston is a great defensive team,” Warriors head coach Steve Kerr said. “Super athletic, a team that has continuity, been in the playoffs year after year with the same core. It’s a team that’s worked its way to this point in a very natural, organic way. Traditionally, this is how it’s supposed to work in the NBA if you look at over the years. You grow a team through the draft, you take your lumps in the playoffs, you climb up, then you get to the Finals … two teams that were mostly built with patience through the draft and development.”

The parallels hold true, depending on what the Warriors represent, and over multiple runs that’s changed. The one venture from that natural progression went unmentioned at Chase Center on Wednesday, after stealing headlines for a moment the day before in a Twitter spat with Draymond Green. These aren’t Kevin Durant’s Warriors, and that gives the Celtics every chance to beat a Golden State franchise at a different stage in both team’s runs. The Warriors have quietly underwent a soft rebuild to go young. Boston is reaching its peak.

It started in the aftermath of Durant’s departure three year ago, acquiring D’Angelo Russell with Durant’s cap figure and flipping him to Minnesota for Andrew Wiggins and a draft pick, which became Jonathan Kuminga. A rejuvenated Wiggins and rookie Kuminga have filled wing minutes admirably for a Golden State team ahead of schedule themselves in many ways. Jordan Poole, a G-League player two seasons ago, exploded as arguably the league’s most-improved player, averaging 18.5 points per game filling in for Klay Thompson. Thompson slowly worked his way back from an ACL and achilles tear in consecutive seasons.

Those four layers of shooting from Curry through Wiggins will challenge Boston immensely, but the Celtics have shown an ability to protect the interior and perimeter, even in their smaller lineups. Al Horford and Grant Williams’ switching abilities have keyed that defensive scheme, these Finals a meeting between the No. 1 and No. 2 defense in the NBA for the first time since 1996. Boston will look in the mirror, if for nothing else, at a team that’s played as disruptive defense as the Celtics have.

“Very confident going in,” Udoka said after Game 7 in Miami. “I know it’s another tough challenge. I think Miami will help prep us for some of the off-ball actions and the shooters that they had, but we know it’s a high-level team, executing team that has a ton of great shooters, great players overall, guys I know well. We’re ready for the challenge.”

It starts and ends with Green. When he exited the lineup midway through the season with a back injury, the Warriors capsized. They slipped behind the Grizzlies after initially competing with the west’s No. 1 seed. Curry struggled. Thompson returned, not resembling himself. When Green returned, Curry fell in a March loss to Boston that cost the guard the rest of his season. When it all came together, Golden State put on its best impression of its past exploits.

The one thing Udoka mentioned that remains constant is that shape-shifting style. All that movement through screens in unexpected locations, two teammates spinning around with locked arms in the post confusing switchers and ample dribble handoffs for shooters. Plugging in the original components, Curry shooting from half court, Thompson converting 39.9% of his threes, Green leading the team with 6.3 assists per game, along with a favorable run through Denver, Memphis and Dallas — and it’s easy to see why the Warriors mystic lives on. It almost ended.

“I shared similar sentiments with Draymond on options of what could happen last offseason and what we should or shouldn’t do,” Curry said. “What’s missed in his comments is the confidence in what our core is about and who we are and what we can do on the court when we’re all together on the court when we’re all together and healthy. It’s pretty impressive that it all has come together the way it has over the course of the season. I think there even was probably a surprise that we started off this season the way we did. I think we were 18-2 at one point and I don’t think we even understood that it would click that quickly. You ride that momentum and that obviously carries you through some crazy ups-and-downs throughout the season with injuries and the revolving door of the rotation and all that. It also speaks to, I know that’s the taboo word, the culture of our organization. It speaks to who we are and what it takes to win at the highest level and however the young guys have learned that, it’s been amazing to watch.”

The Celtics almost joined the Warriors’ story, likely as losers in the 2018 Finals if Boston held on and beat the Cavaliers in the east finals leading 3-2. It would’ve been fair to call the Celtics an upstart group with a bright future then. Instead, they fell behind schedule, going from the east finals in 2020 to a .500 season in 2021 that flowed into this year, unable to shake inconsistency, bad habits offensively and navigating locker room dynamics. Grant Williams spoke up in November, saying this group had to figure it out now, not next year or into the future.

If the Wiggins trade solidified these Warriors, the Horford trade proved a connective fabric that brought Boston back to defense. He remembered screaming in the car with family after finding out about it on a drive from Atlanta last summer, returning to his former home from 2016-2019.

After Boston started 18-21, falling to No. 11 in the east with a 25-point collapse against the Knicks, Horford urged the Celtics to stay together and keep working. As Brown’s repeated, a new coach in Ime Udoka, system, injuries and COVID cases all slowed the group, as did difficult fits the team addressed at the trade deadline by sending out Dennis Schröder, Josh Richardson and Enes Freedom, landing Derrick White and Daniel Theis. The wins started to pile up, and even though they came against suspect competition, Horford said remembering that critique into February. The process showed results, none bigger than a 28-2 start against the Nets on the road.

“In November, December, we were hit with health-and-safety protocols and guys coming in and out of the lineup,” Horford said. “Us, coach Udoka, new staff, new team, new group. Us trying to figure things out. I know the expectations are high, but things take time and I remember talking about it back then. It’s like hey, we’re working toward something and we have to be patient. A lot of times we want something to happen fast, but it just doesn’t happen that way. For us, in my mind, it was the end of January that I was like wait, it’s starting to come together, I think we have a chance. Those days were very dark, were very hard for us, but my whole thing was let’s just keep moving along, keeping things in perspective. It was very difficult, it was, but it was just like let’s just keep working, I believe in this group, I think coach Udoka believed in this group too, but we were just able to stay at it until we were eventually able to break through.”

These aren’t the Celtics featuring Aaron Nesmith, Romeo Langford and Richardson prominently like when the last time the Warriors beat them. They ripped off 28-of-35 to close the regular season, the No. 1 offense and defense over that stretch, then through Robert Williams III meniscus tear, swept the Nets, came back down 2-3 to the Bucks and won a Game 7 in Miami with Smart and Williams III playing hobbled. The Celtics may be vulnerable given their health status and long, winding path here. They could also be considered battle tested — 7-0 following losses in these playoffs having lost consecutive games only once since January, a rest game at Toronto.

Tatum made an All-NBA First Team, with Curry falling to Second Team after a hot start. Green acknowledged on his podcast the difficulty Williams III could present by catching lobs. He may even be understating the problems a healthier Williams III would present as an all-out rim preventer. In 2022, Brown is a more dynamic wing than Thompson. White plays the ideal screen-shaking defense, hounding opponents trying to move off the ball, to give Curry and the Warriors fits, next to Smart whose defensive skills speak for themselves. Horford can comfortably defend perimeter players, maybe not to Poole, Curry and Thompson land, but better than almost any other big could. Home court advantage won’t matter much against a Celtics team that tied the record for road wins before the Finals. As an added layer, the Celtics have played Golden State as well as anyone in past years, with nine wins marking the most by any team against Kerr’s Warriors.

“I haven’t really looked into the past and what they did,” Udoka told CLNS Media after Game 7. “I know this year we played them well, obviously the last game at their place. Even the game early in the season they jumped out, Curry had a big first quarter, Wiggins had a big second quarter, but what we do have is size and versatility on the wings. I think with who we are defensively against a really good offensive team, the benefit is having Marcus, Jayson, Jaylen on the perimeter as well as bigs that they can’t just pick on in Al, Rob, Grant and everyone else we do use, it’s kind of a perfect storm as afar as the matchup with all the offensive talent they have, defensive talent we have. I think our size and versatility bodes well for us as far as that. So feel confident with a lot of guys guarding different players for them, as opposed to other teams, whether you look at the Dallas series or others where they were trying to pick on certain people. We feel comfortable as far as that and I think that benefits us defensively.”

This is a series the Celtics know they can win, which perhaps wouldn’t have been the case four years ago. Both teams turned the ball over on roughly 15% of their possessions this postseason, while assisting on over 65% of their baskets. The Celtics’ elite defense held, allowing just over 105 points per 100 possessions, while the Warriors’ offense ballooned to score over 116 points per 100 possessions on their run.

They did it going small, averaging 124.6 points per 100 in their new-age death lineup. They can go big with Kevon Looney, who averaged 12.4 rebounds (4.3 offensive) per 36 minutes when he checked in. The Warriors played that lineup more, without Poole, since it only allowed 101.4 points per 100 possessions.

It’ll factor in against a Celtics team that’s never actually small, despite sometimes playing two guards with Smart and White. Payton Pritchard could play in this series, but Boston’s size is its strength. Like the Celtics did against the Nets and Bucks, they’ll hunt mismatches by slipping Tatum and Smart into the high post area with screens against Curry, Thompson and Poole, trying to wear out Golden State’s most important players. The Warriors will try to counter with Green helping back line, or disrupting Tatum and others at the point of attack. Gary Payton II could potentially return from injury in this series and give them the latter. Golden State will want to rush and disrupt the Celtics, attacking them before Boston can attack its guards.

Sloppiness became a given for the Celtics over their last two rounds, needing to overcome fourth quarter lapses of stagnancy, settling for jump shots, not sticking to the game plan to get behind the numbers and score around the rim with advantages. Turnovers flowed, at times, like a river. Boston hopes that won’t carry over to the Bay.

The Warriors aren’t an automatic team in transition like the Bucks and Heat were. If you threw the ball away against those teams, you were going to lose. Golden State’s string of shooting can have the same demoralizing effect, but that can happen even outside of giveaways and if this Celtics team has shown one constant on its run, it’s the ability to respond.

The upstart is here, and there’s no better time to belong than right now and catch the team that’s used to being in this spot off guard. Only Boston’s head coach could share what it’s like to play on this stage.

“It’s not much different when you get on the court,” Udoka said. “You have guys that are young, but have been through a few eastern conference finals already. Then our path this year, two Game 7s and playing some high-level teams and taking a tough route, I think that’s prepared us as much as anything.”