What Will the Celtics Do at the NBA Trade Deadline?

BROOKLYN — The Celtics succeeded in changing the calculus on their NBA trade deadline approach, the team reportedly shifting from making anything available from Marcus Smart to Dennis Schröder, to driving a hard bargain for Josh Richardson and Schröder. Boston enters Thursday’s 3 p.m. deadline winners of six straight games, and 13 of their last 17, owning the best defense in the league since Christmas.

Ime Udoka tightened the rotation, the schedule softened up, the Celtics executed in several key fourth quarters and full health created the cohesion in the starting lineup (+29.6 per 100, 265 minutes) Udoka always believed in. Their defensive success, recently, flowed into offense (116.5 points per 100, No. 9 in offense during win streak, +21 net), with a faster-paced half court game and more urgency to push the pace on the break.

“It feels like we’re connected,” Udoka said post-game after the Celtics beat the Nets, 126-91. “It feels at times like we engulf teams and kind of suffocate them with our size and length … for us, it was really about getting to see everybody, which we hadn’t had the full complement, and so it’s hard to gauge where we’re at or what we really need without seeing everybody, until now. I’m sure it opened some eyes to other people that are already calling about some of these guys and seeing how well they’re playing. So I’m sure it works both ways. We’re happy with the way we’re playing … I’m sure it changes  some of the conversation based on what we’re doing lately.”

Boston is now 4.5 games back of first in the east, 3.0 games back of Cleveland for home court and tied with Toronto at the play-in tournament line for the six seed. With uncertainty in Brooklyn, Kevin Durant injured, Gordon Hayward out indefinitely, Bradley Beal now done for the season  and the Hawks 4.0 games back of the Celtics, a spot above the play-in line seems more than attainable.

An eastern conference finals run? It’s a shot in the dark with a daunting top-five ahead of them in the east, highlighted by a racing train rolling toward a repeat attempt in Milwaukee and a budding one in Philadelphia.

Breaks, matchups, and their own ability to play together could be key momentum toward a successful postseason run that translates into momentum toward offseason additions. The Celtics clearly aren’t sellers at the deadline, but what are they? Here are some things to consider:

1. Tax implications. With LaMelo Ball named an all star in Durant’s place, the Celtics have steered clear of Jaylen Brown’s $1.9-million all star bonus, for now. Any ensuing injuries, including James Harden (hamstring) and Zach LaVine (back), could usher Brown as the next, or second in line to join the game as a replacement. Boston may not know by Thursday’s deadline whether the incentive will hit, which probably makes them act like a team $2.8-million over the tax, rather than ~$800,000.
2. That last point sets up an intriguing decision on Dennis Schröder, with the Celtics seemingly not fielding super encouraging offers, and Milwaukee, according to The Athletic, asking for Grant Williams with Schröder for Donte DiVincenzo. Schröder’s been diminished in the new year as part of Boston’s rotation, but his ability to step in and succeed as a spot starter shooting close to 50% from the field is still valuable. The Celtics can offer roughly $7-million annually to keep him this offseason, which isn’t nothing, and multiple reports now indicate that the Celtics prefer not to outright dump his $6-million salary. It’s still the easiest way to guarantee the team isn’t in the tax this year, but Boston would lose something in his absence.
3. That leaves Josh Richardson and Al Horford as the other two intriguing trade pieces for the Celtics. Richardson is fielding interested, with teams reportedly being met with him not necessarily being available. Boston rebuffed the good old Talen Horton-Tucker and 2027 first-round pick hit the Lakers keep playing, while Boston is reportedly interested in trading Richardson up into a wing like Malik Beasley. The Timberwolves haven’t bit, themselves eyeing something bigger like Ben Simmons or Marcus Smart at numerous points. Richardson, 28, makes $11.6-million, which combined with his $12.2-million for next season and lower salaries on the roster could provide the Celtics matching power, along with value, in most trades for other role players. His mix of ball-handling, mid-range shot, 39.7% three-point stroke and defensive switchability make him a Swiss army knife winning and losing teams alike would enjoy. He’s also valuable to Boston, but not necessarily in a backup point guard role, should they lose Schröder, and although he’s succeeded in a few closing lineups alongside Boston’s starters, the Celtics haven’t tested him in either role enough. Is his resurgent season a product of facing opposing second units regularly. Could he be part of the future core or a summer move?
4. As for Horford, his role in the team’s rise to the No. 2 defense in the NBA shouldn’t be understated as an impact pick-and-roll stopper who can guard on the wing and inside. Robert Williams III and him have figured out a pairing that sends most opposing guards scurrying when they hit the paint, not to mention Smart disrupting and hedging screens at the point of attack. There’s nowhere to go against this defense, and Horford’s a major part of it. He’s also gained comfort as a high post creator and pocket passer, as well as a calming veteran presence. The problem is he makes $27-million at 35 this year, and $26.5-million next season if the Celtics don’t eat his likely $14.5-million guaranteed salary before the full number kicks in. He’s also shooting 43.5% from the field, 29.3% from three and rarely closes. Horford could be used to match salaries in most trades, provide some relief to a team this offseason and possibly provide the Boston an upgrade. That’s a razor-thin scope with maybe one or two teams at most that’d make sense for though, but it’s worth discussing due to Boston’s tax status and since Horford is likely a player the Celtics will need to address quickly this offseason. “We’re stopping on the short roll now,” Udoka noticed Wednesday. “The wings are spreading out and giving (the bigs) outlets as well … other than the bigs overolling their spots sometimes and leaving our wings hanging, we’ve been ok at that for the most part, Al in that pocket is really good, Grant in that pocket is really good and Rob’s improved.”
5. Harrison Barnes is still available after the Kings Domantas Sabonis splash on Tuesday, according to SI, and the Celtics reportedly pursued him last trade deadline. The price could be steep, since Barnes fits with numerous teams, but the 16.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 40.5% three-point shooting, along with defensive aptitude and size, address various areas of need and would be an upgrade over Horford or Richardson. He’s signed for $20.3-million this year and $18.3-million next season.
6. Beasley, 25, might be the buy-low alternative to Barnes, both in his contract, $14.4-million this year, $15.5-million next season, with a $16.5-million team option for 2023-24. There isn’t much buzz surrounding him, and he’s shooting 38.2% from the field, 36.2% from three and 74.4% at the free throw line. The Celtics believed utilizing Richardson next to Jayson Tatum and Brown would improve his shooting closer to the early seasons in his career and were proven right. The same could be true for Beasley, a career 43.1% FG, 38.3% 3PT and 80.6% FT shooter. He’s 6’4″, 187 pounds. In 2020, he was arrested on a weapon charge, and later a threatening violence, which landed him in prison for 78 days last summer after he pled guilty.
7. The bottom of Boston’s roster might be as worth watching as the top. Romeo Langford is out of the rotation on most nights now and is extension-eligible before the final season of his rookie contract, worth $5.6-million. Aaron Nesmith and Payton Pritchard are earlier in their careers, making less money, but further from minutes. Langford and Nesmith have been reportedly made available, and were part of The Athletic’s reported Beasley discussions with Minnesota that left the Timberwolves unenthused. The same players have taken part in massive capsized leads alongside Freedom and Bruno Fernando in garbage times in Detroit and Brooklyn, Udoka frustratingly sending Richardson and Grant back into the game against the Pistons, and calling timeouts as the Nets cut a 30-point lead to under 20. If the Celtics are trying to win and consolidate, without any plan to play and develop the youth, it may be worth considering moving on from one or several, at the very least to open up opportunities for other young players or forthcoming draft selections. Boston also has two stashed players in Yam Madar and Juhann Begarin.
8. Boston’s backup center spot is also intriguing as Enes Freedom loses favor in the rotation, once sprinkled minutes behind the double big rotation and now rarely playing. His contract is up after this season and adding a more sustainable, younger depth big would be a good move for now and into the future. Jusuf Nurkic is an intriguing candidate for the right price who would provide some offensive punch, serious size at 7’0″, 290 pounds and is a $12-million expiring contract (that fits the Evan Fournier trade exception). He’s sure to follow the Trail Blazers’ fire sale of Norman Powell and C.J. McCollum. Cheaper options would likely be Montrezl Harrell or Daniel Gafford in Washington, Robin Lopez in Orlando, or Jalen Smith in Phoenix. The Celtics have benefited from lightening the load on Horford in recent weeks, averaging 8.0 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.1 blocks per game over his last eight appearances in 24.8 minutes per game, down from closer to 30 MPG prior. He’s also shooting 34.6% from deep over that stretch.
9. P.J. Dozier ($1.9-million) and Bol Bol ($2.2-million) could both be dumped to the Oklahoma City Thunder in a last-ditch effort to avoid the luxury tax.
10. The Celtics have $17.1-million (exp. 8/17) and $9.7-million (exp. 7/7) trade exceptions to help facilitate any deal. They can be split between multiple players in separate deals, and allow Boston to take on salary up to those figures without matching. It’s a helpful tool, but less so when you’re straddling the luxury tax line and unwilling to take on money without sending out any. The Celtics can be active this deadline, but their apparent financial restraints, winning ways and defensive cohesion make any major splashes unlikely until the offseason. Consider, too, the Celtics probably need to stay under ~$153-million in salary next season to execute an offseason sign-and-trade under a hard cap. They’re already on the hook for $141.7-million between 10 players.
11. The buyout market is another area Boston could improve through, particularly at the point guard spot if the team does part ways with Schröder. Guards who could help facilitating, like Eric Bledsoe or Tomas Satoransky post-Portland, or Terrence Ross (more likely via trade) or Gary Harris (via buyout) would all help the Celtics as cheaper options, particularly if the Celtics have some room under the tax for a minimum contract.