Predicting Bill Belichick’s plans for the Patriots in the NFL draft is a difficult task, but we will do our best by creating a big board with the top 50 fits for New England.
The big board produced five future Patriots in N’Keal Harry, Joejuan Williams, Chase Winovich, Damien Harris, and Josh Uche over the last two drafts. Hopefully, 2021 will be better than 2020.
My goal is to hit on as many players as possible that New England might select in the first three rounds, emphasizing the premium picks, in which the Pats currently hold three (no. 15, no. 46, and no. 96). With that in mind, we will include prospects projected to go in the first four rounds.
The players were decided by comprehensive film study, scheme fit, and Patriots draft trends and ranked by my overall grades.
Lazar’s 2021 NFL Draft Patriots Big Board
| 1-10 | 11-20 | 21-30 | 31-40 | 41-50 |
| 1. Justin Fields | 11. Rashod Bateman | 21. Alex Leatherwood | 31. Samuel Cosmi | 41. QB Kyle Trask |
| 2. Trey Lance | 12. Kadarius Toney | 22. Amari Rodgers | 32. S Richie Grant | 42. DL Marvin Wilson |
| 3. DeVonta Smith | 13. Kwity Paye | 23. Kellen Mond | 33. WR Rondale Moore | 43. CB Tyson Campbell |
| 4. Jaylen Waddle | 14. Caleb Farley | 24. Jevon Holland | 34. WR D’Wayne Eskridge | 44. DL Milton Williams |
| 5. Micah Parsons | 15. Alijah Vera-Tucker | 25. Amon-Ra St. Brown | 35. S Tyree Gillespie | 45. CB Ambry Thomas |
| 6. Patrick Surtain | 16. Jaelen Phillips | 26.Terrace Marshall | 36. DL Levi Onwuzurike | 46. RB/WR Demetric Felton |
| 7. Zaven Collins | 17. Liam Eichenberg | 27. Dillon Radunz | 37. WR Nico Collins | 47. LB Cameron McGrone |
| 8. Jaycee Horn | 18. Mac Jones | 28. Eric Stokes | 38. DT Tyler Shelvin | 48. LB Dylan Moses |
| 9. Rashawn Slater | 19. Elijah Moore | 29. Christian Barmore | 39. EDGE Jayson Oweh | 49. LB Derrick Barnes |
| 10. Christian Darrisaw | 20. Azeez Ojulari | 30. Jamin Davis | 40. OT Spencer Brown | 50. QBs Davis Mills/Jamie Newman |
Here are our top ten best fits for New England in the 2021 NFL Draft:
Click here to view the prospects in the first tier (41-50)
Click here to view prospects in the second tier (31-40)
Click here to view prospects in the third tier (21-30)
Click here to view prospects in the second tier (11-20)
Darrisaw is every offensive line coach’s dream prospect, which is why Pats co-OL coach Carmen Bricillo was in attendance for his Pro Day. A three-year starter at left tackle, Darrisaw has an ideal tackle build at nearly 6-foot-5, 322 pounds with 34.5-inch arms. Most importantly, he has a rare blend of athleticism, balance, and power to execute any block you could ask of him. Darrisaw’s pass sets are clean as he moves with smooth lateral slides and perfect posture combined with active and accurate independent hand usage. As a run blocker, he effortlessly connects while pulling or climbing to the second level on moving targets and routinely creates movement at the line of scrimmage. There’s evidence all over Darrisaw’s tape of him bullying defensive linemen and linebackers ten yards downfield, finishing with a nasty demeanor that will make NFL teams salivate. Darrisaw’s issues are all correctable and minor, and his tape was arguably the best of any in this OT class. Darrisaw has the makings of a long-term starter that could take over in 2022.
There isn’t much separating Slater and Darrisaw as prospects, but Slater has the slight edge in athleticism with an elite relative athletic score of 9.71 out of ten. Slater started 37 games at Northwestern, including 30 straight, at both tackle spots. The tape that makes you fall for Slater was a shutdown effort against NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Chase Young in 2019. Slater won most of his reps against Young thanks to his explosive kick-slide to cut off the angle to the quarterback and a stout anchor. He paces out his approach perfectly with excellent lateral mobility for zone blocks and footwork for second-level climbs as a run blocker. There’s noticeable pop into his engagements and nuanced hand technique as well. Slater is a bit undersized for an NFL tackle (6-foot-4, 304 pounds) and was quick-setting often in Northwestern’s offense, so there will be more true one-on-ones for him at the NFL level. My guess is he’ll be gone before the Patriots are on the clock at 15, but he’d be another slam-dunk pick at offensive tackle if he’s still on the board.
Few prospects in this year’s draft play with the Horn’s level of intensity as a man-coverage corner with experience both out wide (2019-20) and in the slot (2018). Horn was a three-year contributor for the Gamecocks and is the son of former NFL wideout Joe Horn. Furthermore, he possesses excellent length and physicality in his jams with an aggressive mentality to smother receivers in press-man coverage. Horn is calm with the ball in the air, attacks the catch point, and tracks the ball all while staying glued to his man. In zone, his click and close is apparent, and he’ll use his length to work into passing lanes. Horn is at his best in man coverage, but he has the tools to play in any scheme, which will make him even more appealing to New England. If you’re looking for a game to fall in love with Horn, he had two interceptions and four pass breakups against Auburn in 2020, which was the best corner tape of any prospect in this class. He’ll draw some flags due to his physicality and is a little stiff in his hips at times. But this is an alpha on the outside that fits a press-heavy scheme to a tee. If he’s the pick at 15, the Patriots have a plug-and-play replacement for Stephon Gilmore or JC Jackson in 2022.
If it were possible for a prospect to check every box for the Patriots at a position, Collins comes pretty darn close. At nearly 6-foot-5, 259 pounds, Collins has the build New England likes in their linebackers combined with the movement skills of a much smaller player (RAS – 8.73). He can play on or off the line with excellent range and instincts as an off-ball linebacker and added value as an edge rusher in passing situations. As a three-year starter, Collins developed a high IQ in his understanding of fitting the run from off the line and made some ridiculous chase-down tackles in the open field. He also had the highest PFF grade in coverage of any linebacker in this class, using his length and athleticism to affect the passing game in low zones. Versatile, smart and instinctive, an impact player against the run and pass, and the reigning Bronko Nagurski winner as the best linebacker in the country? Yes, Zaven Collins was made to play for Bill Belichick.
Another near-perfect fit at linebacker, Parsons is a bit smaller than Collins at 6-foot-3, 246 pounds. However, he appears to have another gear compared to Collins. Parsons makes impact plays in pursuit as a run-and-chase hitter who, when kept clean, will flow to the football with a purpose. The Penn State product consistently beats blockers to their landmarks against the run and is a heavy-hitter both into engagements and as a tackler. Parsons is truly an elite prospect when it comes to closing burst and range as a tackler. Plus, Parsons adds value as a blitzer or edge rusher in passing situations and has the athleticism to develop in coverage. He needs some seasoning due to inexperience at inside linebacker and is a little over-aggressive in pursuit at times. The other question mark with Parsons comes off the field, which could come into play if he’s in consideration for the Patriots at 15. Parsons was named one of the leaders in a hazing lawsuit that didn’t paint a pretty picture of his maturity level. If he can prove that those maturity concerns are in the past, then he’s capable of wearing all the hats Bill Belichick wants out of his linebackers and would make a great heir to Dont’a Hightower in the middle of New England’s defense.
The son of former NFL cornerback Patrick Surtain, the Alabama product plays like a corner whose dad taught him everything he knows. Surtain is as technically advanced as any cornerback prospect I’ve studied over the last 4-5 drafts. He’s got excellent technique to stay square at the line of scrimmage and smother releases in a way that’s Gilmore-like. Using his length and footwork, Surtain will mirror routes and remain patient until the receiver declares his intentions, trusting his turn and run skills to remain square at the line. Once the route declares, Surtain has the length and route anticipation to remain glued to his man. He had some of the best reps of any corner I saw against the draft’s top wideout in Ja’Marr Chase, holding his own against a slew of NFL talent in the SEC. There are some concerns about Surtain’s reactive athleticism and suddenness to match quick movements. But if you leave him on the outside and let him work, Surtain will become a shutdown CB at the next level. At 15, Surtain would be a steal and could take over as the CB1 for New England in 2022.
Even without the NFL Combine, there’s no disputing that Waddle is the fastest player in this year’s draft. The Alabama wideout has game-breaking speed that might be on Tyreek Hill’s level. He can run by coverage with ease and accelerates through vertical breaks with such explosiveness that the frame rate can’t keep up on tape. Waddle will use that speed to separate on deep patterns and is a chess piece that will thrive on schemed touches behind the line of scrimmage; get this man in space, and watch score from anywhere. Waddle is prone to false-stepping in his breaks as a route-runner, but he’s better than expected there as a lethal dig/stop route artist, and you see some impressive sink-and-cut ability. Plus, he has a variety of releases in his bag and is always making corners antsy in press coverage. Waddle is recovering from an ankle fracture in the 2020 season, which could bring up some medical red flags for teams picking in the top ten. If he’s still available at 15, Waddle would instantly change how defenses game plans for the Patriots’ offense.
Although Waddle’s speed is enticing, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner plays a brand of football that fits in New England perfectly. Smith has outstanding play speed and appears to be moving at a different rate than those around him. Plus, he has a graduate-level degree in route running with his understanding of how to attack various coverages, makes moves in his breaks, and even beat press coverage on the outside. Alabama schemed him open some with Smith playing inside or off the line, but there were also plenty of one-on-one wins for Smith over the last few seasons. Due to an explosive initial burst, Smith is also excellent on schemed touches and in catch-and-run situations on quick-hitters over the middle. Even at his size, he’ll also play above the rim and Moss DBs at the catch point. Smith can run any route from any alignment, and when Alabama needed a big play, they went to Smith over Jeudy, Ruggs, and Waddle over the last two seasons. The only knock on Smith is his size, weighing in at 166 pounds. Smith doesn’t play small and has no issues with playing through contact, but he would be a statistical outlier. For those reasons, Smith may fall out of the top ten, in which case the Patriots would be lucky to get him at 15.
As I wrote in my film breakdown of Lance, he gives the Patriots the best combination of scheme fit and upside in this draft at quarterback. Lance did more Pats-like things at North Dakota State than any other prospect in this QB class, from under-center play-action to the quick passing game to full-field progression reads to option football. Plus, he’s oozing with physical talent with an electric arm and incredible mobility as a power runner with build-up speed. Lance has the best arm talent in this class, flicking the wrist for 60-plus yard bombs, throwing both darts and touch passes, making good decisions with the ball too. Lance also routinely set protections, got the offense out of bad plays, and made great pre and post-snap reads at only 19 years old. However, there are concerns about his accuracy woes and inexperience. As a one-year starter in the FCS, Lance only attempted 319 passes in college, by far the fewest out of the top QBs. Due to mechanical issues at the top of his drops, Lance’s on-target percentage of 47.1 in 2019 was the worst of any QB in this class. Still, he’s a natural thrower that doesn’t fight it while passing the ball, so it’s easy to see a path towards improving his downfield accuracy in a similar vein as Josh Allen or Dak Prescott. Lance has the tools to be special in the NFL, and New England would be a great landing spot.
The discourse surrounding Fields during the pre-draft cycle is concerning. Fields is the second-best quarterback prospect in this year’s class, and any arguments to the contrary are mostly rooted in falsehoods about his game. Those that call Fields a “one-read and run” quarterback have no idea what they’re watching or didn’t watch at all. Fields is a pocket passer that thrived making full-field progression reads in an NFL-level passing system. He is one of the most accurate quarterbacks to enter the draft over the last five seasons, has superb arm talent to make any throw, and just so happens to run a 4.4 but didn’t even scramble as much as he could’ve in college. Honestly, we should be talking about him against Trevor Lawrence as the number one pick instead of falling in the draft. I have no doubts about Fields’s ability to get through a progression and make throws past his first read. However, there are instances where he reacts a little slow to post-snap coverage rotations, and when those rotations take away his first read, you’d like to see him move on from that read faster. In other words, he’s at a very reasonable place in his development for a young quarterback. For the Patriots, you also wonder if Fields is a better fit in a vertical-based passing scheme rather than a timing offense that relies heavily on stretching the field horizontally. Those nuances can be worked out after the fact. If he falls into their range, drafting Fields is a no-brainer for New England. Click here to read a full review on Fields
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