The Patriots came away from this weekend with a statement win in Los Angeles, beating the Chargers 27-24. They now sit as the eighth seed in the AFC, just outside the playoff picture.
New England finally put it together in all three phases of the game and was able to overcome some mistakes to gut out a win. As I alluded to last week – the Pats had only beaten the Jets and the Texans since the last time they played the Chargers, and they needed a win against a good team to prove themselves. That’s exactly what they did on Sunday.
New England’s defense held second year quarterback Justin Herbert to just 223 yards passing and forced him to throw two interceptions – both to former Charger Adrian Phillips. They now have (+105) odds to make the playoffs in the AFC, according to BetOnline.ag.
Here’s where the rest of the Patriots odds currently stand, courtesy of our exclusive wagering partner:
Super Bowl, AFC, & AFC East Champion Odds
Despite still being relative long shots to win the Super Bowl this February, the Patriots odds improved following Sunday’s win. Going from 66/1 to 40/1, New England is tied with the Las Vegas Raiders for the twelfth best odds to bring the Lombardi home.
The Patriots odds to win their conference also went up. Prior to Sunday, New England held 33/1 (+3300) odds to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. They now hold 20/1 (+2000) odds – tied for eighth with the Browns and Steelers.
As you probably know, the AFC has been a crap shoot this season. There is a massive drop off between the Buffalo Bills and the rest of the conference. It’s truly wide open.
Speaking of the Bills, they are the heaviest favorite across the NFL to win their division, holding (-2500) odds to win the AFC East. It’s highly unlikely they fall off.
However – according to BetOnline, the Patriots still have a 6/1 (+600) chance to right the ship and win the division.
Mac Jones Rookie of the Year
Despite a relatively quiet game from the Patriots signal caller on Sunday, Mac Jones odds to win Rookie of the Year are still on the rise.
His odds went from 4/1 (+400) to 11/4 (+275) following this weekends win.
Mac Jones. Dime. #ForeverNE
— NFL (@NFL) October 31, 2021
Jones still trails Bengals wide reciever Ja’Marr Chase, who is the odds-on favorite to win the award. Chase’s odds are 4/7 (-175).
I still think Jones is the right bet here. As I wrote in my “Four Reasons Why” article a few weeks ago, it’s not often that a non-quarterback wins this award. If the Patriots continue running with the pack in the AFC and Jones keeps playing the way he is, he will win this award come February.
Matt Judon Defensive Player of the Year
This is something I haven’t written about yet this season, but it deserves to be talked about. Matt Judon is a monster – and is starting to get recognized for it. Judon currently has (+2500) odds to be the 2021 Defensive Player of the Year, good for seventh in the NFL. Here is the top ten:
Myles Garrett – 5/2 (+250)
TJ Watt – 3/1 (+300)
Trevon Diggs – 11/2 (+550)
Aaron Donald – 23/4 (+575)
Nick Bosa – 12/1 (+1200)
Maxx Crosby – 14/1 (+1400)
Matt Judon – 25/1 (+2500)
Jalen Ramsey – 25/1 (+2500)
Derwin James – 33/1 (+3300)
Hassan Reddick – 40/1 (+4000)
— Evan Lazar (@ezlazar) November 1, 2021
Against the Chargers on Sunday, Judon was tracked for ten QB pressures, two sacks, and eight hurries according to Pro Football Focus.
One of the players at the top of this list (Garrett and Diggs) will most likely win this award. However if Judon continues to play this way, the (+2500) may be worth a flier.
The Patriots head to Carolina this weekend to take on the Panthers. After starting 3-0, Carolina is 1-4 in their last five and struggling to find wins after losing star running back Christian McCaffrey to a hamstring injury. If New England wants to stay in the AFC playoff hunt, they’ll need to come away victorious on Sunday.