Camp Conversations: Outlining Realistic Expectations for the 2022 New England Patriots

The Patriots have only been through two weeks of training camp, and it already looks like they’re headed for an up-and-down season.

They started on fire. The offense was playing sound, the defense was making athletic plays, and hell – even Nick Folk and the specialists seemed to have it going.

And then things got crumby.

According to Boston Sports Journal’s Greg Bedard, when the Patriots came back from their off day last Sunday, the following practice consisted of “the worst offensive period he’s ever seen” covering the Patriots.

That’s no bueno.

I know I’ve put plenty of my thoughts out there about the potential of Mac Jones winning the MVP, Christian Barmore winning the DPOY, and this team making the postseason – but with all of these inconsistencies so far in training camp, it’s time to get realistic. How far can this team actually go? Can they make a playoff run? Can they make the Super Bowl? Here are BetOnline’s odds on when New England’s season will come to an end:

Patriots Stage of Elimination – 2022

Miss Playoffs                                                           -165

Lose in Wild Card Round                                     +275

Lose in Divisional Round                                     +650

Lose in AFC Championship Game                   +1400

Lose in Super Bowl                                             +2500

Win Super Bowl                                                   +4000

The odds say the Patriots won’t even sniff the playoffs this season, with -165 odds to completely miss the postseason. If I was a betting man (lol), I’d agree with this. As I wrote last week, here are my AFC playoff teams:

Here’s how I see the AFC shaking out:

1 – Buffalo Bills

2 – Los Angeles Chargers

3 – Cincinnati Bengals

4 – Indianapolis Colts

—

5 – Kansas City Chiefs

6 – Denver Broncos

7 – Cleveland Browns

However, the question isn’t how far do I think they’ll go, it’s how far can they go.

NFL Network’s Mike Giardi tweeted on Saturday, “Mac Jones had some moments of uncertainty a yr ago in training camp but not nearly as many as you would expect for a rook. This summer? Far more. Yes, it is early August. There’s time. However, the install started back in the spring & you’d like more comfort & success.”

He followed this up with, “To clarify, this isn’t all on Mac. Blocking has been poor (they haven’t been able to run the ball a lick in camp) and last night, there were a number of times Mac had to hold because receivers weren’t open. Not a wonderful combination…”

But, for the sake of discussion, let’s say that things work out both offensively and defensively for this team. In that case, the only teams that the Patriots are absolutely worse than in the AFC are Buffalo, LA, and Kansas City. Though maybe not definitely better – New England can hang with the likes of Cincy, Indy, Denver, Cleveland, Vegas, and Baltimore.

If that’s the parameters we work with, and then we say they defy the odds and land the fifth seed in the AFC playoff picture, then in theory the chips could fall the right way and they could end up playing for an AFC Title.

At this point, however, they can’t (and won’t) go further.

The absolute farthest I think this team can go in the conference title game. They don’t have enough juice to get past that.

So – if you want to have a little fun, then take the +1400 bet of “Lose in AFCCG”. I’ll stick with my original pick of saying that they don’t make the playoffs (-165) in 2022.

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